Kalshi bans George Santos for life over State of the Union bets

Kalshi has banned former Republican Rep. George Santos for life from its platform — the first time the prediction-market company has taken such an action — after alleging he bet on whether he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address, allegedly making $17,839 on the wager. Kalshi’s compliance department said it “established reasonable cause” to believe Santos had placed bets connected to his own attendance at the event, and separately fined him $71,356 over the activity.

“As a person capable of influencing the outcome of the underlying event, Santos was prohibited from trading in this market,” Kalshi wrote, accusing him of making public statements about his attendance in order to influence the odds.

Beyond Santos, Kalshi also penalized and suspended several political candidates accused of betting on their own races, including Ben Midgley, who ran and lost in the Republican primary for Maine’s gubernatorial race; Laurie Buckhout, a Republican congressional nominee; and Stephen Cloobeck, a former California gubernatorial candidate.

Santos responded on X, sarcastically thanking Kalshi for the “lifetime ban from your gambling platform” and questioning how much longer the company would be around. The ban follows a separate settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the U.S. derivatives regulator) two months earlier over the same conduct, under which Santos agreed to pay an additional $35,000. The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the ban.

Why it matters

The Santos ban shows prediction markets policing conflicts of interest among the politicians whose own races and appearances their contracts let people bet on, a self-regulation test as the industry pushes for looser state oversight.