US data centers may burn more gas than Germany and Japan by 2035

By 2035, U.S. data centers are projected to consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. Over the next decade, data centers are expected to be the second-strongest driver of natural gas demand growth after LNG exports. The facilities could consume about 18 billion cubic feet of gas per day — nearly double what BloombergNEF predicted just nine months ago. The new forecast accounts for the fact that not all announced data center projects will actually get built.

Data centers that generate their own power onsite have drawn attention in recent months, with Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all announcing plans for new natural gas power plants that bypass the grid entirely. Projects like these are expected to consume 2.9 billion to 3.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035 — about as much as all data centers, grid-connected or not, consume today. But according to BloombergNEF, onsite-powered data centers could represent just a fraction of the overall demand growth: grid-connected data centers are predicted to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas consumption by the power sector by the middle of the next decade — five times more demand growth through 2035 than all other grid-connected sectors combined.

If that demand growth materializes, it could push natural gas prices higher. Much of today’s data center buildout assumes the stable gas prices of recent years will hold, but analysts at Noreva think that may be a false hope: they say the combined effect of the data center boom and rising LNG exports could send prices soaring. Even if tech companies’ balance sheets can absorb that, utility ratepayers might not be able to.

There’s a climate cost too. Burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide, factoring in extraction, processing, and distribution, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The additional demand from data centers will generate 1 million more metric tons of greenhouse gas pollution daily — about 12% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions today.

Why it matters

The forecast suggests AI infrastructure could reshape US energy markets well beyond the tech sector — raising costs for utility customers and adding a meaningful new source of greenhouse gas emissions even as gas prices were expected to stay stable.