Aurora CFO defends more than 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 goal

Aurora, the autonomous vehicle technology company, told investors last week it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030 — an audacious plan considering it expects to end 2026 with just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate. CFO David Maday contends the target isn’t as large or out of reach as it appears: the four major truck manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year, he told TechCrunch, making 30,000 “pretty small” relative to the overall market. “I don’t think it’s aspirational,” he said, “I think we can do it.”

Investors haven’t embraced the vision. Shares have slid since Aurora’s annual analyst and investor day on September 23, closing down 12.42% to $5.29 on Monday. But Maday says the big “unlock” starts in 2027 and accelerates from there — Aurora expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.

Today, Aurora runs a transportation-as-a-service business it plans to cap around 500 trucks — it owns and operates the trucks itself, charging customers about $2 per mile, including a fuel surcharge, roughly in line with other carriers’ typical rates. The bigger shift comes next year, when Aurora starts moving to a driver-as-a-service model: customers buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription — expected to be about $0.85 — for the self-driving technology, while owning and maintaining the truck themselves. Moving trucks off Aurora’s balance sheet is critical to scaling, and it’s likely what investors are watching most closely. The company expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027, with around 500 trucks on the road.

The next leap comes at the end of 2027, with Aurora’s third-generation hardware — mass-produced by partner Aumovio (formerly known as Continental), which is also financing, servicing and repairing the kits for customers. Aurora plans to expand from a few Southern states today to the vast majority of the continental U.S. by 2030. “By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding,” Maday said, adding that once that happens, Aurora entering ride-hailing is “fine” — confirming the company still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market.

Why it matters

Aurora’s path from a few hundred owned trucks to a subscription-style software business is the clearest test yet of whether autonomous trucking can scale without AV companies bearing the full capital cost of their own fleets.