Amazon’s $40 million ‘Melania’ film faces profit hurdles

The documentary “Melania” exceeded box office expectations during its opening weekend, bringing in an estimated $7.04 million in box office revenue. The performance surpassed pre-release box office estimates, which were predicting a $3 to $5 million opening weekend. The film placed third overall for the weekend, behind the film “Send Help” directed by Sam Raimi, which brought in $20 million, and “Iron Lung,” a film from YouTuber and creator Mark Fischbach that generated $17.8 million.

Despite outperforming those early predictions, the documentary is unlikely to make a profit in theaters. Amazon MGM, the distributor of the film, made a financial commitment to the project, which includes:

• Acquisition cost: $40 million to acquire the rights to the film, representing a bid that was $26 million ahead of Disney.
• Promotion spend: Reportedly $35 million to promote the release.

The cost has led critics and industry veterans to question the strategic rationale behind the deal. Critics suggest the transaction was motivated by a desire to win over the Trump administration rather than the film’s actual box office potential. Ted Hope, a veteran film executive who worked at Amazon from 2015 to 2020, stated that the film has to be the most expensive documentary ever made without music licensing. Commenting on the transaction, Hope asked, “How can it not be equated with currying favor or an outright bribe?”

The project has faced headwinds both during production and from critics. It is the first film directed by Brett Ratner since 2017, a period during which multiple women accused him of sexual harassment and misconduct. Ratner has denied those accusations. Rolling Stone reported that two-thirds of the film’s New York crew asked not to be formally credited. Furthermore, the film was not screened in advance for critics, and the subsequent reviews have been critical. The documentary currently sits at a 7% score on Metacritic and a 10% score on Rotten Tomatoes, which are both review aggregator websites. New York Times film critic Manohla Dargis described the film as a circumscribed and carefully stage-managed chronicle of Mrs. Trump’s day-to-day life during the 20 days before President Trump’s 2025 inauguration.

While Apple CEO Tim Cook attended a preview screening of the film, Amazon MGM is focusing on its distribution. Kevin Wilson, Amazon MGM’s head of domestic theatrical distribution, described the opening weekend as an important first step in a long-tail lifecycle for both the film and the forthcoming docu-series, which he predicted will have a significant life on Amazon’s Prime streaming service.

Why it matters

The documentary’s box office performance is being scrutinized alongside Amazon’s significant financial investment and reported strategic interest in currying favor with the Trump administration.